October 2021
Our ninth episode of our ‘In Conversation with…’ series features James Davies, a Partner in Lewis Silkin’s Employment team.
James discusses his new report, the Eight Drivers of Change, analysing that whilst the pandemic has been a leading catalyst for change in the future of work, it is only one of many drivers of change. James talks through the emerging themes he has identified as a result of the drivers of changes, in particular exploring how changes to the labour market will see ongoing skills shortages and the pandemic meaning employers will be striving to restore a sense of belonging at work. Finally, James makes some thought-provoking predictions for the future, predicting we will all work less hours yet work for longer.
The Eight Drivers of Change Report is now available. Please click here for the full report.
In Conversation With…James Davies
Series 1: Podcast 9
Lucy Lewis: Hello. And welcome to the Future of Work Hub’s ‘In Conversation With’ podcast. I’m Lucy Lewis, a partner in Lewis Silkin’s employment team, and in this podcast series I’ll be hosting exclusive discussions with innovators, business leaders and thought leaders to explore their perspectives on what the future of work holds.
The pandemic has accelerated longer term societal, economic, and technological trends giving us a unique opportunity. A once in a generation challenge to rethink who, how, what and where we work.
But, as our guest speaker today will tell us, the pandemic is only one of many drivers of change to the world of work in the years ahead. So, I’m delighted to introduce James Davies.
James is also a partner in Lewis Silkin’s employment team, and he’s written a fascinating report, ‘The Eight Drivers of Change’. It brings together key aspects of current thinking on the future of work, identifying emerging trends and making some really interesting predictions for the future.
Welcome to the podcast James.
James Davies: Thank you very much Lucy.
Lucy Lewis: So, can I ask you to start by introducing yourself, telling us a bit about your career history and what prompted you to write a report about ‘The Eight Drivers of Change’?
James Davies: So, I will have been with Lewis Silkin for 30 years in March. And I started my legal career five years before that in the late 1980’s. When I joined the Employment Team at Lewis Silkin, there were two Employment Lawyers. Myself and Michael Burd, who is Chairman of Lewis Silkin at the moment. When I last counted, we had 167 Employment Lawyers so I have seen a huge change and growth to the team over the 30 years that I’ve been with the firm.
For many years I had a role managing the Employment team, which gave me an opportunity to put into practice some of the ideas that I had developed over the time that I had been advising clients of all shapes and sizes on their people issues. It has been an interesting and rewarding journey over this time.
As to why I wrote the report. I was reflecting some months ago on the changes that were driving debates about what is often referred to as the ‘new normal’. Over the 35 years that I’ve practised as an Employment Lawyer, so much has changed and it struck me the pace of change was accelerating.
Since the early days of my career what I do, how I do it, where I do it and when I do it have all been transformed. In the late 80’s when I started my career, I remember the firm had Telex Operators and I recall the arrival of the first faxes on shiny paper which had to be photocopied quickly before they faded. I recall the very first email arriving in the mid 90’s. At the start of my career of course, there were no emails. So telephone messages were taken by a secretary who put them on a spike on my desk. And no mobile phones. Never mind smart phones. Which mean that I had to be at my desk all the time in order to talk to clients.
Looking back at the early days of my career in the 1980’s, I think the most significant reflection that I will have is that changes over the 30 years would have been totally unforeseeable, and indeed unbelievable at the time.
And I do think, looking forward, you need to bear in mind that the most significant changes over the next 20 or 30 years are probably unimaginable today.
Lucy Lewis: Thanks James. It’s really interesting and fascinating insight and it’s one of the things that we’ve talked about on the Future of Work Hub that actually it’s quite difficult to plan knowingly for the future. What we need to do is build skills for preparedness so people can be prepared for the unexpected.
Drivers of change
But take us through the eight drivers of change. Give us a summary of what those things are.
James Davies: So, of the eight drivers of change, the first one has come out of nowhere. Well, it’s come out of nowhere for most of us, which is of course, COVID. There are two other key drivers of change which are accelerating the pace of which the world of work and society are changing. And they are technology and sustainability.
The other five drivers of change that I identified are drivers that have always had a role in change and are continuing to do so. Demographics. Globalisation. Migration. Social trends. And one that I think is given little attention, but I think will play and has played, an important role, which is what I call the role of the state which embraces largely politics and virtual change.
Lucy Lewis: Thanks James. Now, I’ve had the benefit of a preview of the Report and I wondered if you could say a little bit more about the first two that you mentioned.
UK climate emergency
COVID as you say, this unexpected driver of change. But then also sustainability. That’s something that feels very current at the moment. You’ve identified it as a key long-term driver. We know that the UK is hosting COP26, so I wondered if you could say a little bit more about those two things.
James Davies: Of course. Sustainability is defined in the Cambridge English Dictionary as the quality of being able to continue over a long period of time. And I consider this in my report, both in the context of a sustainable world but also in the context of a sustainable business and how these impact on the world of work. Of course, the climate emergency is front and centre of any consideration of sustainability and will have an increasing impact on work and indeed on employment law.
The climate emergency will influence employers, both as regards to the direct impact of climate change activities. But also, on the steps organisation will take to reduce their impact of climate change.
From a business perspective, sustainability is the heart of the attention now being given to an organisation’s environmental, social and governance credentials, ESG. And increased attention is being paid by various stakeholders to an organisation’s environmental, social and governance credentials. Whether that’s customers. Whether that’s investors. Or whether that’s staff or the current staff the organisation is seeking to hire.
The climate emergency is also going to have an increased impact on where work is done. Some places are going to become very difficult. Some places will become unsafe for people to work outside. They’ll be susceptible to extreme temperatures. But I think that increasing temperatures will also have an impact on places like the UK where we’re less susceptible to those extreme temperatures. Many of the places in which we work have been designed for lower temperatures than we will be experiencing in the years that come. For example, many organisations are poorly ventilated, they don’t have air conditioning and the like and I think this is going to become an issue in the future.
And I think it’s also supply chains that people will look at. Whether that’s from a geopolitical perspective or whether it’s the practical impact that the climate emergency will have on their supply.
Second example that I have is COVID. I’m sure that’s here to stay as a driver of change. Firstly, and most obviously it is changing from where we all work. We’re seeing the rise of home working and agile working and remote working. We’re seeing the rise of digital nomads and a newfound flexibility that recognises that being in the office is not always necessary.
COVID is also giving much greater attention to health and safety and wellbeing. And we are now seeing the economic implications of COVID which are affecting supply chains and I think the unpredictable economic future is going to continue to have an impact on society and in the world of work.
Lucy Lewis: Thank you. Fascinating. Really interesting and obviously a lot of us are living through those COVID changes that you talk about.
future of work trends
One of the things that I thought was really interesting in your report was that all these drivers are interconnected, and the interconnection is meaning that they’re accelerating change together. What can we learn from that?
James Davies: I think that one of the things that I identified in my report were what I described as emerging themes. And as you say that interconnectivity of the drivers is driving various themes which are impacting greatly on the world of work. I identified eight of these which I will list as changes to the labour market, changes to the regulation of the workplace, flexibility, resilience, socialisation AND belonging, inequality and division and innovation. So, taking two of those by way of example, firstly, changes to the labour market and indeed you can see profound changes taking place at the moment with the skill shortages in many areas.
Very briefly, the labour market has worked very well for many years. However, we are seeing various factors come together. There are serious skill shortages around the country. Some of these issues are UK specific, but others are not. No doubt over time these skill shortages will reduce. But I do think in the long term, bearing in mind the potential for technology to replace human labour, we will find ourselves increasingly with both ongoing skill shortages but at the same time increased unemployment and under employment.
It will be incumbent for Governments to take action but also employers. Employers will need to be more flexible in their resourcing strategies but also focus on the sustainability and resilience in their workforces. They will move from just in time to just in case. Skill shortages will change bargaining power between employer and employee. But also focus employers on the need to train and develop people with the requisite skills.
Second example that I’ll just refer to briefly is socialisation and belonging. I think lockdown caused many of us to reflect on the importance of the socialisation of work.
And I think moving forward, organisations will need to work harder to recognise and facilitate the importance people place on socialisation. And connected with socialisation is the need for organisations to work harder at fostering a sense of belonging. Where workforces are together in person less, and more fragmented geographically, I think this sense of belonging will become more acute as an issue.
Lucy Lewis: Of course. Thank you James, that’s really interesting and great to hear. Some more information about some of those themes.
future careers
But, having identified those eight emerging themes, what do you conclude are the wider tangible implications of that?
James Davies: So, I think one of the interesting tangible and implications of these drivers of change and their accelerating pace and interconnectivity is what I describe as new jobs, old jobs, more jobs, fewer jobs. I think the rapid pace of change is converging to have a dramatic impact on the occupations available to us. At a faster pace than before. Demand for certain occupations will reduce and disappear, while others will increase.
Technology of course, plays an important part here. But it’s not the only relevant driver although it is driving change. The green agenda is creating jobs and will create many more. It is already four times the size of the UK’s manufacturing sector and growth is anticipated in the years ahead.
Demographic change is increasing demand for health and social care professionals. The rise of social media is creating new jobs such as social media marketers, social media influences, jobs unimaginable merely a few years ago.
Lucy Lewis: Thanks James. And actually, that leads nicely to my next question because as I said, I’ve been lucky enough to see a preview of your report. The official version will be released later this month.
workplace trends
So, the thing that I found particularly interesting, and I alluded to this at the start, was your final section where you make eight predictions for the changes that we might see in the future and one of the predictions is that people will be working less, and I wondered if you could explain a bit about why you made that prediction.
James Davies: Working hours increased over the pandemic. But that reversed a trend that we have seen across all of the major economies over the last 50 years where working hours have gradually declined.
And I think that historic trend will continue. I think there are a number of reasons for that. One of that is increased importance many of us play of flexibility and a work life balance.
And I do worry that major technological change is going to have an impact on the number of jobs that are available. We’re in the what’s known as the fourth industrial revolution at the moment, and the other previous industrial revolutions which have all seen dramatic technological change. There was, in each case, concerns beforehand that the change was going to result in a reduction in the number of jobs. However, on the contrary, the number of jobs increased particularly due to the increased productivity and affluence created by the change. And I just wonder whether or not this time it might be different. And this time the pace and scale of change may have long term impacts on the number of jobs which are available for all of us.
In the 1930’s John Maynard Keynes predicted that by the time his grandchildren have grown up, which is about now, they would be working 15-hour weeks. This of course hasn’t happened. I just wonder ultimately whether he might be proved right in just a generation or two earlier in his prediction.
Lucy Lewis: Thank you. We will look ahead and see whether your predictions are right.
future predictions
Now, I don’t want to ruin the anticipation of the report for those that want to read it, but I wondered if you are willing, if you could share perhaps one or two of the other predictions that you make?
James Davies: Okay. So, another prediction is that I think … and I think I can say this with a little bit more confidence, that many more of us will be working beyond 70. We have increasing life expectancy. It did, for the first time in an awful long time, decline during the pandemic with the number of people who lost their lives as a result of the coronavirus, but I expect that to continue to increase once we are out of the worst effects of the pandemic.
One interesting fact is that the fertility rate in the United Kingdom is well below that necessary to replace the population. On average, each woman is giving birth to 1.7 children and you need 2.1 to replace the population. So, we have a decline in the number of people coming into the workplace and I think that may result in pressures for people to work longer and longer.
In the past migration has often served to compensate for reduced fertility rates, but unless current politics changes, we’re not seeing migration levels at a sufficient number to replace the reduction in the number of children being born and indeed children reaching a working age.
I think another factor is the stereotypes and prejudices that some old workers can face. One interesting fact is that in the US where they have had federal age discrimination laws for around 50 years now, whereas they’re much more recent in the UK, nearly twice as many people there, work beyond 70 as a proportion of the population than in the UK. And whilst there are a number of factors no doubt for that, I do wonder whether or not over time these age discrimination laws do have an impact on perceptions and views.
I think another prediction is that I think we may see employees, workers, having increased say over the environmental impact of their work. And we are witnessing already countries, such as France, laws being introduced giving workers a right to be consulted on the environmental impact of major business decisions in larger companies anyway, and I suspect that it won’t be too long before workers in the UK will benefit from similar roles.
Lucy Lewis: Thanks James. That’s a great prediction to finish with because it helps draw the line between the driver, the theme and then the prediction and we will see and particularly see what comes out of COP26, something we’re following very closely on the Future of Work Hub.
Future of work
Before I let you go, a question that I ask all our guests on this Podcast Series, and that’s what do you personally think will be the biggest and most radical change for the future of work that we’ll take forward with us from the pandemic?
James Davies: So, I think from the pandemic, the biggest change will be the amount of time that we spend in the office and the repurposing of that time spent in the office. Although it is fair to say, only 36% of the population worked at home at all during the pandemic so I think we mustn’t lose sight that, two thirds of the population do jobs that don’t facilitate homeworking.
However, I think the most significant drivers of change in the years ahead won’t be COVID but will be technology and sustainability.
Lucy Lewis: Thank you James, that’s been really interesting and I’m sure that everyone will be really interested to review your report, your themes and recommendations. If people would like to find out more, please visit futureofworkhub.info or follow our Twitter account at @FutureofWorkHub. Thank you.
The Eight Drivers of Change Report is available now. Please click here for the full report.