Since the world emerged from the Covid pandemic, economies in richer nations such as the UK have faced skills shortages. A range of converging factors have resulted in many sectors experiencing too few workers for the available jobs. This report considers whether this situation is likely to improve in the longer-term. Looking ahead to 2050, the report explores whether a world of work with too few jobs or too few workers is likely to emerge.
Although this report concludes that there are too many uncertainties to be too confident about the future shape of the labour market, it suggests that there is a real possibility that, by 2050, economies such as the UK will face a labour market with too few jobs for the available workers.
This potential future is driven by the pace and scale of change. Rapid advances in technology will continue, propelled by pivotal developments in AI. However, it is not just technology which is driving and accelerating change. Other interconnected drivers of change – demographic changes, shifts in migration patterns and the geo-political landscape, globalisation, climate change and social trends - are, together, significantly impacting the world of work.
Historically, industrial transformations have always eventually led to a net increase in jobs created by changing demands driven by new ways of working newly available goods and services and increased consumer demand from improved productivity. This report looks at the broadly optimistic views of commentators that current and future disruption will generate similar results but sounds a degree of caution that the scale and speed of change could easily have a different outcome this time.
Delving down into the work and occupations of today, this report considers the factors which could increase or decrease jobs in different sectors over the next quarter of a century. Analysing predictions made in a range of other reports and commentaries it foresees growth in jobs requiring caring or social interaction skills, particularly in the health and caring sectors. In other sectors, the report predicts jobs will remain but potentially will be fewer, or change significantly, as humans and machines increasingly collaborate and work alongside each other.
The report concludes with a “Manifesto for tomorrow’s work” - outlining a set of actions for policymakers, employers and individuals in order to prepare now for the future world of work. As a priority, it calls for increased investment in the new and evolving skills required in the years ahead – a necessary investment regardless of whether there are too few jobs or workers.
Profound and extensive disruption to jobs over the next quarter of a century is inevitable and this disruption will not at times be predictable. The impact of this transformation on the world of work will depend on decisions made, and actions taken, over the next few years.
This report identifies the decisions and actions which will need to be addressed and brings together insights from a variety of sources to offer a glimpse of that future.
This report ‘The future of work in 2050 – too few jobs or too few workers? ’ was written for the Future of Work Hub by James Davies, Employment Partner at Lewis Silkin LLP.